Sullivan 2

On the other hand, he’s got the coming year quite right:

“Blair – again – is doing the right thing. Leadership means telling people what they don’t want to hear. It’s not just possible there will be a terrorist attack this coming year that is equal to or greater than the horror of 9/ 11/01. It’s probable. It’s not just possible that Saddam will unleash the vilest weapons in his arsenal in the coming war. It’s probable. My own view is that this year is probably going to be an awful one: full of death and conflict and struggle and because of them, economic distress. I think the era of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of evil, stateless men is imminent; and that things will likely get a lot worse before they get better.”

And if, in a year’s time, he looks alarmist, we should remember what Orwell said: that intellectuals are almost always wrong about the timing of events, but right about their direction.